A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
